Ai Partners Financial Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
5,207.35
decreased by 477.42
1 Week
5,483.16
decreased by 201.61
1 Month
7,055.14
increased by 1,370.37
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~151 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7701 | 2.34** |
| αARCH | 0.1207 | 6.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8747 | 42.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1953 | -2.17** |
0.995
Persistence151d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7701 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1207 | 6.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8747 | 42.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1953 | -2.17** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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