Irrc Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
8,745.05
increased by 4,034.11
1 Week
5,312.94
increased by 602.00
1 Month
4,338.34
decreased by 372.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 11:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6558 | 6.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1738 | 9.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7967 | 40.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0065 | -0.32 |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6558 | 6.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1738 | 9.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7967 | 40.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0065 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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