V-Lab
Odawara Auto-Machine Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5,396.94
decreased by 186.50
1 Week
5,771.95
increased by 188.51
1 Month
7,170.08
increased by 1,586.64
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5629 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1449 | 11.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8328 | 57.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.9526 | -6.59*** |
| γ2 | 1.2678 | 5.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.5710 | -3.60*** |
| γ4 | 0.8479 | 5.80*** |
| γ5 | -1.5213 | -7.56*** |
| γ6 | 2.1876 | 7.47*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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