V-Lab
Odawara Auto-Machine Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
8,453.33
decreased by 1,247.66
1 Week
9,367.68
decreased by 333.31
1 Month
7,167.05
decreased by 2,533.94
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2009 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5599 | 3.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1454 | 11.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8325 | 57.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.9643 | -6.55*** |
| γ2 | 1.2838 | 5.57*** |
| γ3 | -0.5890 | -3.62*** |
| γ4 | 0.8870 | 5.83*** |
| γ5 | -1.5544 | -7.62*** |
| γ6 | 2.1675 | 7.61*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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