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Odawara Auto-Machine Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

5,396.94

decreased by 186.50

1 Week

5,771.95

increased by 188.51

1 Month

7,170.08

increased by 1,586.64

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Odawara Auto-Machine ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5629
3.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1449
11.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8328
57.49***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.9526
-6.59***
γ21.2678
5.61***
γ3-0.5710
-3.60***
γ40.8479
5.80***
γ5-1.5213
-7.56***
γ62.1876
7.47***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days