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V-Lab

Odawara Auto-Machine Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

8,453.33

decreased by 1,247.66

1 Week

9,367.68

decreased by 333.31

1 Month

7,167.05

decreased by 2,533.94

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Odawara Auto-Machine ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2009 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5599
3.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1454
11.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8325
57.79***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.9643
-6.55***
γ21.2838
5.57***
γ3-0.5890
-3.62***
γ40.8870
5.83***
γ5-1.5544
-7.62***
γ62.1675
7.61***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days