V-Lab
Petgo Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6,020.26
increased by 3,205.10
1 Week
3,325.02
increased by 509.86
1 Month
3,622.80
increased by 807.64
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 29, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3894 trading days (~15.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3894 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8607 | 4.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.1544 | 6.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8454 | 34.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5787 | -1.85* |
1.000
Persistence3894d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8607 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1544 | 6.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8454 | 34.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5787 | -1.85* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3894 days
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