V-Lab
BOE Varitronix Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
8,566.22
increased by 3,191.49
1 Week
5,745.93
increased by 371.20
1 Month
3,906.37
decreased by 1,468.36
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 481 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3818 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1652 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8333 | 47.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -1.0036 | -2.19** |
| γ2 | 1.5352 | 2.34** |
| γ3 | -0.5668 | -1.88* |
| γ4 | -0.3560 | -1.64 |
| γ5 | 1.2149 | 3.35*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
481 days
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