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Fureasu Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

11,013.12

increased by 3,665.76

1 Week

8,718.21

increased by 1,370.85

1 Month

8,130.60

increased by 783.24

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Fureasu Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 28, 2019 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4154
6.39***
αARCH0.1536
4.83***
βGARCH0.7763
17.46***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.3239
-6.61***
γ20.4641
4.87***

0.930

Persistence

10d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4154
6.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1536
4.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7763
17.46***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.3239
-6.61***
γ20.4641
4.87***

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days