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Norbel Baby Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

15,701.56

increased by 2,232.17

1 Week

11,733.28

decreased by 1,736.11

1 Month

6,567.21

decreased by 6,902.18

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Norbel Baby Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 12, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3272
0.00
αARCH0.3543
0.00
βGARCH0.6457
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ125.8338
0.00
γ2-95.3466
0.00
γ3162.2518
0.00
γ4-195.1218
0.00
γ5193.4230
0.00
γ6-139.6230
0.00
γ765.1166
0.00
γ8-22.0007
0.00

1.000

Persistence

86643d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3272
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3543
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6457
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ125.8338
0.00
γ2-95.3466
0.00
γ3162.2518
0.00
γ4-195.1218
0.00
γ5193.4230
0.00
γ6-139.6230
0.00
γ765.1166
0.00
γ8-22.0007
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days