V-Lab
Norbel Baby Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
15,701.56
increased by 2,232.17
1 Week
11,733.28
decreased by 1,736.11
1 Month
6,567.21
decreased by 6,902.18
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3272 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.3543 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6457 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 25.8338 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -95.3466 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 162.2518 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -195.1218 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 193.4230 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -139.6230 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 65.1166 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -22.0007 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence86643d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3272 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3543 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6457 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 25.8338 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -95.3466 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 162.2518 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -195.1218 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 193.4230 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -139.6230 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 65.1166 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -22.0007 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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