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Information Technology Total Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

12,144.19

increased by 1,186.72

1 Week

10,808.99

decreased by 148.48

1 Month

9,961.79

decreased by 995.68

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Information Technology Total ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 2018 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~346573 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8704
αARCH0.2078
βGARCH0.7922
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-1.0583
γ21.5923

1.000

Persistence

346573d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8704
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2078
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7922
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-1.0583
γ21.5923

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days