V-Lab
Luo Lih-Fen Holding Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
6,463.84
decreased by 806.60
1 Week
6,830.31
decreased by 440.13
1 Month
7,745.14
increased by 474.70
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2018 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1182 trading days (~4.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1182 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0342 | 5.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1554 | 10.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8440 | 57.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0088 | -0.19 |
0.999
Persistence1182d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0342 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1554 | 10.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8440 | 57.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0088 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1182 days
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