V-Lab
Ifbh Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
4,517.88
increased by 1,570.81
1 Week
3,289.60
increased by 342.53
1 Month
3,020.68
increased by 73.61
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1048 | 11.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0742 | 1.53 |
| βGARCH | 0.6410 | 2.02** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2587 | -0.53 |
0.715
Persistence2d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1048 | 11.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0742 | 1.53 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6410 | 2.02** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2587 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.715
Half-life:
2 days
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