Knc Laboratories C Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
7,464.32
increased by 4,688.11
1 Week
3,988.43
increased by 1,212.22
1 Month
2,930.62
increased by 154.41
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 329 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~329 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0372 | 5.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.1355 | 11.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8624 | 72.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0310 | 0.94 |
0.998
Persistence329d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0372 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1355 | 11.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8624 | 72.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0310 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
329 days
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