V-Lab
Get Nice Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
6,754.58
decreased by 1,137.66
1 Week
5,641.23
decreased by 2,251.01
1 Month
12,100.62
increased by 4,208.38
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0651 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1657 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8343 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -4.2910 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 3.1862 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.9329 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -2.6859 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 2.2496 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.7661 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -2.0436 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 1.5583 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -1.8038 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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