V-Lab
Yamada Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
3,941.65
increased by 2,651.14
1 Week
1,897.16
increased by 606.65
1 Month
1,912.69
increased by 622.18
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 63013 trading days (~250.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~63013 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5173 | 0.38 |
| αARCH | 0.1151 | 0.10 |
| βGARCH | 0.8848 | 0.76 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1163 | -0.62 |
| γ2 | 0.1695 | 0.67 |
| γ3 | -0.0894 | -1.09 |
1.000
Persistence63013d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5173 | 0.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1151 | 0.10 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8848 | 0.76 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1163 | -0.62 |
| γ2 | 0.1695 | 0.67 |
| γ3 | -0.0894 | -1.09 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
63013 days
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