V-Lab
Taihei Machinery Works Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
3,646.66
decreased by 483.26
1 Week
4,090.92
decreased by 39.00
1 Month
5,596.15
increased by 1,466.23
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3339 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1509 | 14.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8420 | 82.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.8564 | -5.60*** |
| γ2 | 1.4777 | 6.91*** |
| γ3 | -0.9585 | -7.73*** |
| γ4 | 0.3902 | 3.73*** |
| γ5 | 0.1227 | 1.22 |
| γ6 | -0.4125 | -4.06*** |
| γ7 | 0.4105 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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