V-Tac Technology Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
9,102.12
decreased by 538.31
1 Week
6,313.78
decreased by 3,326.65
1 Month
3,777.03
decreased by 5,863.40
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.5248 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2586 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7414 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.7674 | |
| γ2 | 3.1823 | |
| γ3 | 7.8474 | |
| γ4 | -13.1834 | |
| γ5 | 7.5362 | |
| γ6 | -5.1230 | |
| γ7 | 7.0614 | |
| γ8 | -2.9129 | |
| γ9 | -0.3395 | |
| γ10 | -2.5076 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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