V-Lab
Bank of Zhengzhou Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
12,643.83
increased by 10,241.28
1 Week
5,071.12
increased by 2,668.57
1 Month
3,531.22
increased by 1,128.67
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 23, 2015 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2094 trading days (~8.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2094 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.9324 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.2473 | 5.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7523 | 16.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.9320 | -0.64 |
| γ2 | 1.6832 | 0.62 |
| γ3 | -5.6056 | -0.95 |
| γ4 | 2.6190 | 0.25 |
| γ5 | 13.1789 | 0.90 |
| γ6 | -5.8011 | -0.40 |
| γ7 | -25.3113 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 37.0700 | 2.37** |
| γ9 | -23.2090 | -1.76* |
1.000
Persistence2094d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.9324 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2473 | 5.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7523 | 16.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.9320 | -0.64 |
| γ2 | 1.6832 | 0.62 |
| γ3 | -5.6056 | -0.95 |
| γ4 | 2.6190 | 0.25 |
| γ5 | 13.1789 | 0.90 |
| γ6 | -5.8011 | -0.40 |
| γ7 | -25.3113 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 37.0700 | 2.37** |
| γ9 | -23.2090 | -1.76* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2094 days
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