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Smn Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

6,502.87

decreased by 299.81

1 Week

4,521.53

decreased by 2,281.15

1 Month

2,924.90

decreased by 3,877.78

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Smn Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 24, 2015 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7293
6.59***
αARCH0.1506
12.24***
βGARCH0.8436
68.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0232
-1.55

0.994

Persistence

120d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7293
6.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1506
12.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8436
68.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0232
-1.55

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

120 days