V-Lab
Everbright Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
10,646.37
decreased by 2,424.18
1 Week
7,868.05
decreased by 5,202.50
1 Month
2,570.82
decreased by 10,499.73
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5292 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.3454 | 9.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6425 | 24.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7844 | -0.23 |
| γ2 | 5.9347 | 0.83 |
| γ3 | -23.1121 | -1.92* |
| γ4 | 41.0221 | 2.21** |
| γ5 | -31.9001 | -2.18** |
| γ6 | 7.2990 | 1.67* |
| γ7 | 3.9809 | 1.90* |
| γ8 | -6.3053 | -2.76*** |
| γ9 | 7.6022 | 3.33*** |
| γ10 | -5.5598 | -2.26** |
0.988
Persistence57d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5292 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3454 | 9.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6425 | 24.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7844 | -0.23 |
| γ2 | 5.9347 | 0.83 |
| γ3 | -23.1121 | -1.92* |
| γ4 | 41.0221 | 2.21** |
| γ5 | -31.9001 | -2.18** |
| γ6 | 7.2990 | 1.67* |
| γ7 | 3.9809 | 1.90* |
| γ8 | -6.3053 | -2.76*** |
| γ9 | 7.6022 | 3.33*** |
| γ10 | -5.5598 | -2.26** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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