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Everbright Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

10,646.37

decreased by 2,424.18

1 Week

7,868.05

decreased by 5,202.50

1 Month

2,570.82

decreased by 10,499.73

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Everbright Securities Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 18, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5292
2.45**
αARCH0.3454
9.94***
βGARCH0.6425
24.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.7844
-0.23
γ25.9347
0.83
γ3-23.1121
-1.92*
γ441.0221
2.21**
γ5-31.9001
-2.18**
γ67.2990
1.67*
γ73.9809
1.90*
γ8-6.3053
-2.76***
γ97.6022
3.33***
γ10-5.5598
-2.26**

0.988

Persistence

57d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5292
2.45**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3454
9.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6425
24.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.7844
-0.23
γ25.9347
0.83
γ3-23.1121
-1.92*
γ441.0221
2.21**
γ5-31.9001
-2.18**
γ67.2990
1.67*
γ73.9809
1.90*
γ8-6.3053
-2.76***
γ97.6022
3.33***
γ10-5.5598
-2.26**

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days