Micron Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
6,300.52
increased by 1,374.01
1 Week
5,778.24
increased by 851.73
1 Month
7,118.03
increased by 2,191.52
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 27, 2005 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9796 | |
| αARCH | 0.1803 | |
| βGARCH | 0.8197 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.3137 | |
| γ2 | 0.4348 | |
| γ3 | -0.2343 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9796 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1803 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8197 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.3137 | |
| γ2 | 0.4348 | |
| γ3 | -0.2343 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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