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Takamatsu Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

7,094.90

increased by 3,212.49

1 Week

4,525.16

increased by 642.75

1 Month

3,811.52

decreased by 70.89

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Takamatsu Machinery Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0268
0.15
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1407
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8593
0.11
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.1593
0.00
γ2-0.5070
-0.01
γ30.4798
0.15
γ4-0.0661
-0.04
γ5-0.1596
-0.11

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days