Takamatsu Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
7,094.90
increased by 3,212.49
1 Week
4,525.16
increased by 642.75
1 Month
3,811.52
decreased by 70.89
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0268 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1407 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8593 | 0.11 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.1593 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.5070 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.4798 | 0.15 |
| γ4 | -0.0661 | -0.04 |
| γ5 | -0.1596 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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