V-Lab
Mubang High-Tech Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
683.93
increased by 127.21
1 Week
487.02
decreased by 69.70
1 Month
444.24
decreased by 112.48
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 14747 trading days (~58.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4599 | 0.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4097 | 0.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5903 | 0.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5.6324 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -25.1601 | -0.18 |
| γ3 | 45.3580 | 0.64 |
| γ4 | -39.6232 | -0.56 |
| γ5 | 16.2714 | 0.46 |
| γ6 | -3.7478 | -0.29 |
| γ7 | 2.8400 | 0.40 |
| γ8 | -3.0397 | -0.61 |
| γ9 | 2.7922 | 0.64 |
| γ10 | -3.6435 | -0.68 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
14747 days
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