V-Lab
Ginwa Enterprise Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2,173.11
decreased by 310.35
1 Week
2,403.32
decreased by 80.14
1 Month
2,072.86
decreased by 410.60
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.7253 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.2478 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7522 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.3684 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 4.4684 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -4.9943 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 2.1116 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -1.4614 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | 3.4448 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -4.6923 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 6.9154 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence99021d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7253 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2478 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7522 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.3684 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 4.4684 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -4.9943 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 2.1116 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -1.4614 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | 3.4448 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -4.6923 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 6.9154 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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