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V-Lab

Toso Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

3,109.52

increased by 152.96

1 Week

3,209.34

increased by 252.78

1 Month

5,080.76

increased by 2,124.20

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Toso Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 12, 1996 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4577
3.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
11.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8960
82.21***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.2620
-5.18***
γ20.3758
5.41***
γ3-0.2845
-6.53***
γ40.3445
8.04***
γ5-0.2393
-5.71***
γ60.0574
0.89

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days