V-Lab
Toso Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
3,109.52
increased by 152.96
1 Week
3,209.34
increased by 252.78
1 Month
5,080.76
increased by 2,124.20
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 1996 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4577 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 11.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8960 | 82.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.2620 | -5.18*** |
| γ2 | 0.3758 | 5.41*** |
| γ3 | -0.2845 | -6.53*** |
| γ4 | 0.3445 | 8.04*** |
| γ5 | -0.2393 | -5.71*** |
| γ6 | 0.0574 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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