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Tenryu SAW MFG Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

3,323.95

increased by 764.09

1 Week

2,724.89

increased by 165.03

1 Month

4,262.05

increased by 1,702.19

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tenryu SAW MFG Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 20, 1995 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0603
4.20***
αARCH0.1801
7.07***
βGARCH0.5633
9.18***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0884
0.36
γ2-0.4176
-1.23
γ31.0801
4.85***
γ4-1.5963
-7.31***
γ51.1766
5.91***
γ6-0.2563
-1.57
γ7-0.2865
-1.93*
γ80.4543
2.89***
γ9-0.4516
-2.23**
γ100.3530
0.88

0.743

Persistence

2d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0603
4.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1801
7.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5633
9.18***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0884
0.36
γ2-0.4176
-1.23
γ31.0801
4.85***
γ4-1.5963
-7.31***
γ51.1766
5.91***
γ6-0.2563
-1.57
γ7-0.2865
-1.93*
γ80.4543
2.89***
γ9-0.4516
-2.23**
γ100.3530
0.88

Persistence:

0.743

Half-life:

2 days