Tenryu SAW MFG Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
3,323.95
increased by 764.09
1 Week
2,724.89
increased by 165.03
1 Month
4,262.05
increased by 1,702.19
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0603 | 4.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1801 | 7.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5633 | 9.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0884 | 0.36 |
| γ2 | -0.4176 | -1.23 |
| γ3 | 1.0801 | 4.85*** |
| γ4 | -1.5963 | -7.31*** |
| γ5 | 1.1766 | 5.91*** |
| γ6 | -0.2563 | -1.57 |
| γ7 | -0.2865 | -1.93* |
| γ8 | 0.4543 | 2.89*** |
| γ9 | -0.4516 | -2.23** |
| γ10 | 0.3530 | 0.88 |
0.743
Persistence2d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0603 | 4.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1801 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5633 | 9.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0884 | 0.36 |
| γ2 | -0.4176 | -1.23 |
| γ3 | 1.0801 | 4.85*** |
| γ4 | -1.5963 | -7.31*** |
| γ5 | 1.1766 | 5.91*** |
| γ6 | -0.2563 | -1.57 |
| γ7 | -0.2865 | -1.93* |
| γ8 | 0.4543 | 2.89*** |
| γ9 | -0.4516 | -2.23** |
| γ10 | 0.3530 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.743
Half-life:
2 days
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