V-Lab
Sea & Land Integrated Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
9,888.63
increased by 4,067.16
1 Week
5,263.21
decreased by 558.26
1 Month
3,610.32
decreased by 2,211.15
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 49510 trading days (~196.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0043 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1806 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8194 | 0.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.2250 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 1.7704 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -1.5482 | -0.22 |
| γ4 | 2.3302 | 0.53 |
| γ5 | -2.5646 | -0.50 |
| γ6 | 2.1570 | 0.44 |
| γ7 | -1.2493 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
49510 days
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