V-Lab
Prodelight Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
11,168.29
increased by 4,702.42
1 Week
8,148.88
increased by 1,683.01
1 Month
5,646.27
decreased by 819.60
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2023 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0840 | 6.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.2185 | 7.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7513 | 26.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1113 | 0.64 |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0840 | 6.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2185 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7513 | 26.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1113 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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