V-Lab
Nova System Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
14,869.20
increased by 5,043.77
1 Week
6,625.79
decreased by 3,199.64
1 Month
3,226.47
decreased by 6,598.96
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2023 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8645 | 3.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1838 | 5.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7822 | 21.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3175 | -1.83* |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8645 | 3.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1838 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7822 | 21.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3175 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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