Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Nova System Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

14,869.20

increased by 5,043.77

1 Week

6,625.79

decreased by 3,199.64

1 Month

3,226.47

decreased by 6,598.96

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Nova System Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2023 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8645
3.65***
αARCH0.1838
5.68***
βGARCH0.7822
21.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3175
-1.83*

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8645
3.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1838
5.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7822
21.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3175
-1.83*

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days