Ko Ja (Cayman) Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026
1 Day
4,678.38
increased by 210.84
1 Week
4,974.16
increased by 506.62
1 Month
7,351.14
increased by 2,883.60
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 29, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0467 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.1652 | 0.17 |
| βGARCH | 0.8348 | 0.88 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence99021d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0467 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1652 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8348 | 0.88 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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