Poper Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
5,807.36
increased by 598.32
1 Week
5,246.64
increased by 37.60
1 Month
5,512.82
increased by 303.78
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2022 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9550 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.1159 | 6.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8772 | 48.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1020 | -0.45 |
0.993
Persistence100d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9550 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1159 | 6.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 48.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1020 | -0.45 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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