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V-Lab

Poper Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4,946.34

decreased by 434.13

1 Week

5,381.39

increased by 0.92

1 Month

6,253.09

increased by 872.62

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Poper Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9504
5.77***
αARCH0.1183
6.27***
βGARCH0.8746
47.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1253
-0.52

0.993

Persistence

97d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9504
5.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1183
6.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8746
47.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1253
-0.52

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days