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Poper Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

5,807.36

increased by 598.32

1 Week

5,246.64

increased by 37.60

1 Month

5,512.82

increased by 303.78

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Poper Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2022 to Nov 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9550
5.91***
αARCH0.1159
6.28***
βGARCH0.8772
48.24***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1020
-0.45

0.993

Persistence

100d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9550
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1159
6.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8772
48.24***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1020
-0.45

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

100 days