Poper Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4,946.34
decreased by 434.13
1 Week
5,381.39
increased by 0.92
1 Month
6,253.09
increased by 872.62
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9504 | 5.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.1183 | 6.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8746 | 47.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1253 | -0.52 |
0.993
Persistence97d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9504 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1183 | 6.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8746 | 47.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1253 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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