V-Lab
Vis Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
7,171.94
increased by 4,669.98
1 Week
3,738.80
increased by 1,236.84
1 Month
2,838.60
increased by 336.64
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~115524 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9869 | 0.48 |
| αARCH | 0.1277 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8723 | 0.25 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1386 | -0.01 |
1.000
Persistence115524d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9869 | 0.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1277 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8723 | 0.25 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1386 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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