V-Lab
Triis Incorporated Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
8,350.37
increased by 6,949.48
1 Week
3,011.87
increased by 1,610.98
1 Month
2,093.16
increased by 692.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1370 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0165 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2383 | 18.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7612 | 58.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.5205 | -2.44** |
| γ2 | 2.5817 | 3.21*** |
| γ3 | -1.3577 | -5.40*** |
| γ4 | -0.1071 | -0.72 |
| γ5 | 0.8024 | 5.26*** |
| γ6 | -0.6515 | -3.79*** |
| γ7 | 0.5418 | 3.23*** |
| γ8 | -0.4199 | -2.12** |
| γ9 | -0.1668 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1370 days
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