V-Lab
Xnet Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
3,847.08
decreased by 346.18
1 Week
4,265.19
increased by 71.93
1 Month
6,644.54
increased by 2,451.28
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8259 | 0.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1319 | 0.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8681 | 0.38 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0882 | -0.37 |
| γ2 | 0.1382 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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