Gimic Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,165.31
increased by 0.51
1 Week
5,132.48
decreased by 32.32
1 Month
4,912.24
decreased by 252.56
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7820 | 5.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9756 | 42.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5405 | -1.65* |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7820 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9756 | 42.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5405 | -1.65* |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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