Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Showa System Engineering Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

9,414.86

decreased by 1,369.75

1 Week

8,480.05

decreased by 2,304.56

1 Month

6,816.08

decreased by 3,968.53

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 05:30 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Showa System Engineering ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3047
5.93***
αARCH0.1488
7.80***
βGARCH0.8160
38.74***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.9129
-2.68***
γ22.3220
4.11***
γ3-3.5116
-9.31***
γ43.8525
11.84***
γ5-2.6534
-7.54***
γ61.5456
5.24***
γ7-0.9617
-3.87***
γ80.0907
0.33
γ90.5696
2.14**
γ10-0.3335
-0.86

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3047
5.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1488
7.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8160
38.74***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.9129
-2.68***
γ22.3220
4.11***
γ3-3.5116
-9.31***
γ43.8525
11.84***
γ5-2.6534
-7.54***
γ61.5456
5.24***
γ7-0.9617
-3.87***
γ80.0907
0.33
γ90.5696
2.14**
γ10-0.3335
-0.86

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days