V-Lab
Kawasaki Geological Engr Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
605.86
decreased by 34.16
1 Week
614.02
decreased by 26.00
1 Month
772.76
increased by 132.74
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 6, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6132 | 7.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1166 | 8.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8589 | 55.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0203 | -6.13*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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