V-Lab
Shuz Tung Machinery Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
7,510.97
increased by 4,760.00
1 Week
3,778.96
increased by 1,027.99
1 Month
2,822.45
increased by 71.48
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 7, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2317 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2398 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7602 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.6780 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.2181 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 1.9832 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 3.0187 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -10.5801 | -0.07 |
| γ6 | 15.7994 | 0.05 |
| γ7 | -13.4877 | -0.08 |
| γ8 | 8.5630 | 0.02 |
| γ9 | -8.2015 | -0.09 |
| γ10 | 7.4487 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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