IPS Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
8,345.46
increased by 5,224.59
1 Week
4,082.22
increased by 961.35
1 Month
2,630.71
decreased by 490.16
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2002 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~69314 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8866 | 3.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.1935 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8065 | 0.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.3384 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | -0.8495 | -0.02 |
| γ3 | 0.6594 | 0.23 |
| γ4 | -0.1232 | -0.24 |
| γ5 | 0.0055 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.0742 | -0.03 |
1.000
Persistence69314d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8866 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1935 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8065 | 0.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.3384 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | -0.8495 | -0.02 |
| γ3 | 0.6594 | 0.23 |
| γ4 | -0.1232 | -0.24 |
| γ5 | 0.0055 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.0742 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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