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IPS Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

8,345.46

increased by 5,224.59

1 Week

4,082.22

increased by 961.35

1 Month

2,630.71

decreased by 490.16

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IPS Holdings Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2002 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~69314 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8866
3.19***
αARCH0.1935
0.04
βGARCH0.8065
0.17
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.3384
0.01
γ2-0.8495
-0.02
γ30.6594
0.23
γ4-0.1232
-0.24
γ50.0055
0.00
γ6-0.0742
-0.03

1.000

Persistence

69314d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8866
3.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1935
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8065
0.17
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.3384
0.01
γ2-0.8495
-0.02
γ30.6594
0.23
γ4-0.1232
-0.24
γ50.0055
0.00
γ6-0.0742
-0.03

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

69314 days