V-Lab
Yuke'S Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
7,883.83
increased by 3,235.01
1 Week
5,111.98
increased by 463.16
1 Month
3,490.90
decreased by 1,157.92
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8083 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1326 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8674 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.1495 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.0054 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.2893 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.1116 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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