V-Lab
Yuke'S Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4,112.79
decreased by 401.06
1 Week
4,651.78
increased by 137.93
1 Month
5,824.06
increased by 1,310.21
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8462 | 2.29** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1313 | 0.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8687 | 0.71 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1236 | -0.34 |
| γ2 | 0.2230 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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