V-Lab
Wonderplanet Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
9,479.11
increased by 5,114.25
1 Week
5,283.99
increased by 919.13
1 Month
2,903.75
decreased by 1,461.11
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~117 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5366 | 5.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.2714 | 11.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7227 | 29.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2796 | -3.31*** |
0.994
Persistence117d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5366 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2714 | 11.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7227 | 29.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2796 | -3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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