V-Lab
Asmarq Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
15,419.37
increased by 9,046.96
1 Week
6,729.53
increased by 357.12
1 Month
4,352.85
decreased by 2,019.56
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7142 | 6.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2790 | 5.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5863 | 9.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -1.5437 | -4.00*** |
| γ2 | 3.2036 | 4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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