V-Lab
Phytohealth Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
6,571.77
increased by 1,032.07
1 Week
5,841.90
increased by 302.20
1 Month
5,158.19
decreased by 381.51
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2005 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5270 | 8.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.1737 | 16.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8090 | 73.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0119 | 6.07*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5270 | 8.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1737 | 16.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8090 | 73.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0119 | 6.07*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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