How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	0.9219	1.76*
αARCH	0.1117	6.66***
βGARCH	0.8577	40.80***

γ₁	0.8702	2.28**
γ₂	-2.0073	-3.92***
γ₃	2.6215	7.87***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	0.9219	1.76*
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1117	6.66***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8577	40.80***

γ₁	0.8702	2.28**
γ₂	-2.0073	-3.92***
γ₃	2.6215	7.87***

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Date Range:

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