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Oriental Watch Holdings Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

6,366.11

decreased by 1,164.17

1 Week

7,683.99

increased by 153.71

1 Month

6,183.28

decreased by 1,347.00

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Oriental Watch Holdings ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Nov 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5746
1.36
αARCH0.1761
8.01***
βGARCH0.7574
20.26***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.7129
2.88***
γ2-3.9380
-5.26***
γ34.0368
5.49***
γ4-1.8818
-2.62***
γ5-0.7163
-1.72*
γ61.0348
3.36***
γ7-0.3235
-0.93
γ80.3305
1.19
γ9-0.4274
-2.23**
γ100.5618
2.27**

0.934

Persistence

10d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5746
1.36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1761
8.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7574
20.26***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.7129
2.88***
γ2-3.9380
-5.26***
γ34.0368
5.49***
γ4-1.8818
-2.62***
γ5-0.7163
-1.72*
γ61.0348
3.36***
γ7-0.3235
-0.93
γ80.3305
1.19
γ9-0.4274
-2.23**
γ100.5618
2.27**

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days