Oriental Watch Holdings Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
6,366.11
decreased by 1,164.17
1 Week
7,683.99
increased by 153.71
1 Month
6,183.28
decreased by 1,347.00
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5746 | 1.36 |
| αARCH | 0.1761 | 8.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7574 | 20.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.7129 | 2.88*** |
| γ2 | -3.9380 | -5.26*** |
| γ3 | 4.0368 | 5.49*** |
| γ4 | -1.8818 | -2.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.7163 | -1.72* |
| γ6 | 1.0348 | 3.36*** |
| γ7 | -0.3235 | -0.93 |
| γ8 | 0.3305 | 1.19 |
| γ9 | -0.4274 | -2.23** |
| γ10 | 0.5618 | 2.27** |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5746 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1761 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7574 | 20.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.7129 | 2.88*** |
| γ2 | -3.9380 | -5.26*** |
| γ3 | 4.0368 | 5.49*** |
| γ4 | -1.8818 | -2.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.7163 | -1.72* |
| γ6 | 1.0348 | 3.36*** |
| γ7 | -0.3235 | -0.93 |
| γ8 | 0.3305 | 1.19 |
| γ9 | -0.4274 | -2.23** |
| γ10 | 0.5618 | 2.27** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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