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Uluru Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

7,922.47

decreased by 467.52

1 Week

8,836.87

increased by 446.88

1 Month

5,967.82

decreased by 2,422.17

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Uluru Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2017 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3651
2.96***
αARCH0.1504
5.89***
βGARCH0.7669
14.85***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.9623
0.75
γ2-1.6720
-0.83
γ3-0.0103
-0.01
γ42.6756
4.20***
γ5-5.2176
-6.29***
γ66.7428
8.69***
γ7-5.6441
-9.79***
γ83.7680
5.28***

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3651
2.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1504
5.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7669
14.85***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.9623
0.75
γ2-1.6720
-0.83
γ3-0.0103
-0.01
γ42.6756
4.20***
γ5-5.2176
-6.29***
γ66.7428
8.69***
γ7-5.6441
-9.79***
γ83.7680
5.28***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days