V-Lab
Showa Paxxs Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
9,891.65
increased by 1,060.77
1 Week
9,361.27
increased by 530.39
1 Month
6,773.26
decreased by 2,057.62
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3784 | 7.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0539 | 7.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9388 | 117.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0065 | -1.90* |
0.993
Persistence94d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3784 | 7.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0539 | 7.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9388 | 117.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0065 | -1.90* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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