Collabos Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
7,954.88
increased by 4,456.24
1 Week
4,764.89
increased by 1,266.25
1 Month
4,528.54
increased by 1,029.90
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~273 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8945 | 4.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.1867 | 11.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8108 | 51.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0467 | -3.69*** |
0.997
Persistence273d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8945 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1867 | 11.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8108 | 51.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0467 | -3.69*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
273 days
Other Collabos Corp Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities