V-Lab
Image Information Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
7,926.16
increased by 5,111.03
1 Week
4,238.15
increased by 1,423.02
1 Month
4,022.06
increased by 1,206.93
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3364 trading days (~13.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3364 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8500 | 5.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.2018 | 10.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7980 | 43.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0576 | -0.17 |
| γ2 | -1.1506 | -2.14** |
| γ3 | 2.2155 | 6.46*** |
| γ4 | -1.5659 | -5.27*** |
| γ5 | 0.8390 | 2.83*** |
| γ6 | -0.2253 | -0.85 |
| γ7 | -0.8874 | -2.28** |
| γ8 | 2.3842 | 2.91*** |
1.000
Persistence3364d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8500 | 5.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2018 | 10.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7980 | 43.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0576 | -0.17 |
| γ2 | -1.1506 | -2.14** |
| γ3 | 2.2155 | 6.46*** |
| γ4 | -1.5659 | -5.27*** |
| γ5 | 0.8390 | 2.83*** |
| γ6 | -0.2253 | -0.85 |
| γ7 | -0.8874 | -2.28** |
| γ8 | 2.3842 | 2.91*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3364 days
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