V-Lab
Ecomic Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3,890.00
increased by 118.68
1 Week
4,432.38
increased by 661.06
1 Month
4,455.85
increased by 684.53
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5141 | 6.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1486 | 11.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8229 | 54.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.1863 | -3.93*** |
| γ2 | 1.2114 | 2.41** |
| γ3 | 0.0607 | 0.13 |
| γ4 | -0.6606 | -1.47 |
| γ5 | 1.6550 | 4.80*** |
| γ6 | -2.0238 | -4.23*** |
| γ7 | 1.4743 | 2.04** |
| γ8 | -0.5425 | -0.68 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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