V-Lab
J-Escom Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
5,387.58
decreased by 470.29
1 Week
5,680.83
decreased by 177.04
1 Month
6,387.00
increased by 529.13
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 3, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8285 | 0.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8571 | 0.04 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.4707 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.5670 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.1467 | -0.07 |
| γ4 | 0.1814 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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