Coxon Precise Ind Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
6,963.63
increased by 87.18
1 Week
6,024.04
decreased by 852.41
1 Month
4,441.48
decreased by 2,434.97
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 800 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~800 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3418 | 3.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1585 | 6.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8406 | 36.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0081 | 1.09 |
0.999
Persistence800d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3418 | 3.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1585 | 6.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8406 | 36.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0081 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
800 days
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